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Rosie Carr

This bull rally, what to do with Discovery, HSBC, Netcall and Asian Citrus, plus press tips
February 27, 2012
This bull rally, what to do with Discovery, HSBC, Netcall and Asian Citrus, plus press tips

Almost to the day one year ago, Tesco gained a new chief executive. Sir Terry Leahy, who had transformed the retailer from a £4bn business to one with a value of £32bn, handed over the reins to his successor Philip Clark. As we all now know, Tesco has tripped up badly since that handover of power - ground has been lost to rivals, there's been a shock profit warning and slump in the share price - and the new CEO has admitted to making strategy mistakes. Even shareholders who don't own a stake in the giant grocer must be watching intently from the sidelines because at the heart of the story lies an issue that affects all big and successful companies: that of succession planning. No matter how brilliant the CEO, he, or she, isn't going to stay forever. And when the time comes to appoint a new boss, shareholders have to decide if they should throw their lot in with the new boss or get out fast before things go wrong. It's an issue that's been raised by the world's most famous investor, Warren Buffett, in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway investors, almost certainly several years in advance of a change at the top. But with a compound annual gain of almost 20 per cent, an overall average gain of 513,005 per cent since the mid 1960s and a current share price of $120,000, there's a lot at stake. Mr Buffett says a successor has been identified, along with two superb back-ups, and that they "will enjoy a running start". Even so, he knows that his are big shoes to fill. You can read the full letter to shareholders at www.berkshirehathaway.com. Meanwhile, in Simon Thompson's letter to readers this week, he analyses the current bull rally and whether it has further to run, along with the implications for small cap shares. We've also got the latest news and our updated views on Discovery Metals - which has doubled since we tipped it at 52p, HSBC, Asian Citrus and Netcall, along with our start of the week round up of press tips.

Tax free dividends, the Trader, copper supply deficit, interest rates, and hedge funds
February 17, 2012
Tax free dividends, the Trader, copper supply deficit, interest rates, and hedge funds

How would you like a tax free stream of income from an investment yielding between 7 and 8 per cent? Usually when something looks too good to be true, it either isn't (true) or there's a catch. With this particular investment, the catch is the risk you take on. That's because the investment is in venture capital trusts. We'll come to the risk in a moment. What makes VCTs stand out are their generous tax breaks and the fact that they have delivered very strong dividend returns - at the end of December 2011, generalist VCTs were yielding an average of 7.6 per cent and Aim-invested trusts 8.1 per cent. For that reason alone, it's worth considering the role VCTs could play in your portfolio. Now the risk: this is their exposure to smaller, mostly unquoted companies whose shares may be volatile and vulnerable to difficult economic conditions. Our special report on VCTs, and their cousins Enterprise Investment Schemes, by Leonora Walters analyses the advantages and risks of both, offers pointers on how to invest in them and which ones to choose. Elsewhere the Trader continues to foresee gains in the indices but has words of advice for fellow traders stuck in a relationship that's going nowhere; Mark Robinson reports on the copper supply deficit which will benefit the likes of Rio Tinto; Chris Dillow explains why interest rates might not rise until 2014 and Alistair Blair despairs at the "success" of hedge funds.

Where to get a 9 per cent yield, the tale of two Aim shares plus is a reader's high cash holding a good thing?
February 16, 2012
Outperforming shares, early Isa planning, Shire, Hargreaves and the Trader
February 14, 2012
Outperforming shares, early Isa planning, Shire, Hargreaves and the Trader

George Osborne must wish he had Apple's - or even Vodafone's - problem: so much cash they can hardly know what to do with it. As the chancellor digests the news that Moody's has put the heavily indebted, but still triple A rated, UK on a downgrade threat, Apple sits on a cash pile of $97.6bn which analysts reckon could surpass $200bn by 2013. Its share price has topped the $500 mark (delivering a healthy profit for anyone who followed John Hughman's tip to buy the shares last October - we'll have more on that tomorrow). Meanwhile mobile telecoms operator Vodafone, which yesterday confirmed a possible interest in Cable & Wireless Worldwide, announced in its interims last week that it expects its free cash flow this year to be around £6.5bn, and that's not including the £2.8bn dividend received from Verizon Wireless in January. Our columnist Bearbull had already decided last month that Vodafone, "on the verge of becoming a cash-generating machine of major proportions", was a must-have for any high-yield equity portfolio including his own Income Portfolio. But where can other must-have shares be found? Algy Hall has used a growth screen to track down four shares all boasting rising earnings, rising dividends and rising share prices. Elsewhere Maike Currie offers advice on getting ready for the new Isa season, we report on results from Shire and Hargreaves Lansdown and Dominic Picarda explains his reaction to the latest market movements.

Greece, a great value small cap, Barclays and press tips
February 13, 2012
Greece, a great value small cap, Barclays and press tips

Greece has stepped back from the brink of uncontrollable economic chaos with politicians voting through a deeply unpopular austerity bill. That paves the way for the next injection of bailout cash, but the threat of a social explosion still lingers in the air. One survey I glanced at this morning indicated that just 5 per cent of respondents think the passing of the bill will lead to Greece rebalancing its finances and calm Euro worries, while 92 per cent think either the Greek crisis will drag on or that the country's troubles will get worse. I wonder how many Greeks blame their current troubles on Germany and how many lean towards the view that the crisis is at least partly a home-grown disaster? Because even if yesterday's rioters came largely from the ranks of anarchists, anger and social unrest could spiral as the package of job losses and pay cuts is implemented, prolonging the pain and increasing the chances of an exit from the EU. Away from the birthplace of democracy, here in the UK the Confederation of British Industry predicts that growth will resume – albeit at a fragile rate of just 0.2 per cent in the first quarter - while our companies editor Simon Thompson finds a small cap which boasts contract wins, a strong profit recovery and cost savings. He recommends buying in now ahead of a share price rerating expected soon. John Adams reports on Barclays results, and we've got our usual round-up of press tips and the Trader's daily comment.

German profit machines, a better way to invest in emerging markets, mining shocks and core ETFs
February 3, 2012
German profit machines, a better way to invest in emerging markets, mining shocks and core ETFs

While Greece sinks into the mire, and quite a few other European member states find themselves ankle deep in quicksand, Germany goes from strength to strength. Last year the country's economy grew by an impressive 3 per cent. It boasts a jobless rate of 6.6 per cent - contrast that with Spain's rate of 22 per cent - its public finances are in great shape, German companies are booming and its exports are soaring. The appeal of Europe as an investment theme may have lost its lustre but the same can't be said of the economic powerhouse at its core. Julian Hofmann examines the best ways to access the German stock market and the shares to focus on. And if a better way of buying into Europe is to buy German, there may be a better way of buying into the emerging markets story than simply chasing developing nations' "biggest and best". They may be great companies but do they offer exposure to the real growth potential in the developing world? Our columnist Bearbull thinks not and he's dumping a fund packed full of global giants, quasi utilities and national champions and replacing it with one that links his portfolio with the dynamic side of developing economies and their consumers. Meanwhile Martin Li explains how increasing structural challenges facing miners are likely to underpin long-term commodity prices and, as the new tax year draws nearer, Leonora Walters argues the case for putting a low cost ETF into your Isa and identifies suitable core holdings. Finally, we are looking to recruit people to join a research panel with a view to improving the ¹û¶³´«Ã½. If you are interested or would like to find out more, please complete the short questionnaire below.

Xstrata & Glencore, Facebook's IPO, top quality international companies, and The Trader
February 2, 2012
Xstrata & Glencore, Facebook's IPO, top quality international companies, and The Trader

The market's worst kept secret is out - Glencore is in talks with Xstrata about a merger of equals to create an $80bn (£51bn) resource company. Details are still thin - the statement was forced out because of a leak - but the outcome looks rather disappointing for Xstrata shareholders. Xstrata needs to offer its shareholders a much better deal than that. Xstrata and Glencore aren't the only global giants to hit the headlines today. Facebook too had an announcement to make: it's filed papers for an initial $5bn listing in the US, making it the world's biggest technology IPO yet. If you're not one of Facebook's 800 million users and have no idea how social media companies should be valued, Malar Velaigam casts her eye over the sector and advises on the best way to assess this new breed of company. Facebook's debut on the market has been carefully planned and it comes market-ready with a worldwide "customer" base and a profit in 2011 of $1bn from $3.7bn of largely ad revenue. That healthy profit margin already places it in stark contrast to the flop that Ocado's debut and subsequent story's been, and underlines the attractions generally of global giants. Their fortunes aren't tied to a single economy, at risk of spluttering along in first gear. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies the UK is heading straight into a technical recession and growth going forward will be even slower than forecast. And although the Institute argues that the chancellor is taking the right steps to tackle the deficit (if he had followed Labour's plans, the think tank says, the deficit in a few years would be around £76bn rather than the £24bn now expected), it warns that, should the eurozone break up, UK public finances would take another big hit. Against that sort of backdrop, the allure of big international companies can only grow. For peace of mind and the potential for strong returns, it makes sense to tuck at least a few of these chaps into your portfolio. Algy Hall's done the research and come up with a list of global elite recommendations. Meanwhile the Trader explains why even though the current stock market is about as appealing as a grotty late-night takeout, he's still tucking in. Finally, the stripping of former RBS chief Fred Goodwin of his knighthood has split opinion up and down the country - and at the ¹û¶³´«Ã½. John Hughman and Alistair Blair hold firmly opposing views. Worried chief executives and directors might like to note that Mark Zuckerberg's bonus in the first half of 2011 was a mere $220,500.

A solid global fixed income fund, RBS bonds and oil prices
February 1, 2012
Five slow but steady winners, Pan African's transformational deal and getting to grips with new risks
January 31, 2012
Five slow but steady winners, Pan African's transformational deal and getting to grips with new risks

With liquidity pumps turned on and flowing freely, 25 EU member states agreeing to tough new fiscal rules, and strong starts to the year in the markets, what could be worrying investors now? Plenty, of course. Deep rooted obstacles to growth would be one of those worries, leaving investors concerned that investments made now could struggle to flourish. But that risk can be dramatically shrunk by buying undervalued shares, and/or companies entering a transformational phase. In our stock screen this week, we've looked for fundamentally sound companies which have been out of the spotlight but have continued to show steady earnings growth during the past few difficult years. If they can do that, they must be doing something right. Attached to these neglected shares, we want forecasts for continued earnings growth at the same level for the next 12 months. Algy Hall has used the approach espoused by the incredibly successful US fund manager John Neff to turn up 5 shares that fit the bill. Meanwhile Martin Li explains how a deal being signed by Pan African Resources should boost its gold output to around 140,000 ounces a year and in the process transform the company's prospects. Lee Wild reports on packaging company RPC, up 90 per cent since our buy tip and recommends what action to take now; while Jonas Crosland offers an update on one of our Tips of the Year which is already showing a gain of 9 per cent. Finally, M&G's bond fund star Richard Woolnough explains to personal finance editor Moira O'Neill why the risks for bond investors have changed.