Shell (SHEL) issued a clear warning on fourth-quarter earnings last month but still managed to undershoot analyst expectations on the back of higher costs and weaker oil prices. The energy giant reported Q4 adjusted earnings of $3.2bn (£2.4bn), 7 per cent behind the consensus forecast and 11 per cent down on a year ago.
On a full-year basis, Shell reported adjusted earnings of $18.5bn, a 22 per cent fall compared to 2024. Despite the fall, the energy major has held onto its buyback plan of $3.5bn a quarter, as well as raising the dividend by 4 per cent as per the payout policy.
Borrowing rose in the fourth quarter as buybacks, dividend and interest payments and lease additions (totalling $8.5bn) outweighed free cash flow of $4.2bn. Net debt as of 31 December was $45.7bn, 11 per cent up from 30 September and 18 per cent higher than a year ago.
Shell has continued its focus on handing investors cash while calls are growing for additions to the portfolio.
“We note that Shell’s reserve life is now 7.8 years (from 8.9 last year), impacted by the sales in Nigeria and the remaining oil sands position,†said RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria. “Given this is weaker than some peers, we anticipate this could fuel more questions around Shell’s M&A reserve replacement strategy going on the call later today.â€
The RBC analyst had said last month management may have to reconsider the buyback plans to fund growth.
Shell chief executive Wael Sawan said green lights for projects in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil would add reserves, and highlighted exploration work in Angola and South Africa. He also described keeping payouts at 40-50 per cent of operating cash flow as “sacrosanctâ€.




